Carmakers need common solution for future mobility

“It is imperative that consumers believe there is a plan, that you know where you’re going,”
None of what I've seen so far, since 2003, let me think "there is a plan ; is here to stay" because the only way, the only "technology" for future challenge is weight reduction! Streamline shapes too!

See the price of raw material in one hand, the price of energy (oil, gaz or price of investment for renewal energies) in the other hand, and finally, about driving pleasure, take a modern sport car driver and put him in a Lotus Eleven (470 kg for 100 HP) and see his face after few miles, and you will convinced it's the only way to go,

Imagine the 1 liter (per 100 kms or 235 MPG) VW car with 30 HP instead of 9 today, with still 290 kg (so 140/150 MPG?) and you have something that will stay be current 25 years.

To illustrate, why should we go Hybrid, Ethanol Diesel or whatever, if it's to drive trucks or wagon streamlined like a large wardrobe and 3000 lbs that will never do better than 75 MPG?

baumm you have to realize that weight reduction costs a lot, but mostly because the CF industry isnt developed enough yet. reducing weight is a really hard thing to do when you're talking about a 5 passenger car. you use the elise as an example but the elise is basically a glorified go kart. and in the end, weight reduction only helps in the city. another point here is that with dynamic braking (when electric drive motors sap kinetic energy and store it in the form of electrical energy), weight reduction isnt as important. you can put your money into the drive package instead of reducing the weight of the vehicle. think of it like a rubber ball bouncing off the ground. it comes to a stop, but it's deformed, so as it regains its shape, it pushes off the ground. dynamic braking is really effective in this sense because electric systems have very high efficiencies. you dont think the prius could get the mileage it does without it do you?

the way I see it is hybrid technologies are the only way to go for the moment. they're quickly implimented, and have potentially huge gains. the hybrids that we know today suck. thats a given. but it allows for a transition to fully electric vehicles. people just need to be convinced that "hey i never use gas in my plug in hybrid. i think ill go completely EV next time."

and yes, batteries are often toxic. but a small package of toxic chemicals can be treated much easier than a couple million tones of CO2 dispersed throughout trillions of tonnes of air.

electric is more efficient, and clean to the air. it packages its wastes into a manageable package, and hybrids are the stepping stone to that.

I hate today's hybrids cause they're a bastard child of such a glorious technology, and their drivers think that they're the damned saviors of the planet. and then the go home and eat 3 hamburgers every night.

Chris & Baum, you both have good points, weight will go down and vehicle size is going to shrink (at least in the US), but a plan is needed so that the other players in transportation know what to invest in. Hydrogen will never develop if there are too few production and distribution facilities, and there won't be any investment in those if there is not some surety that a market will exist. Short term, now +10 years, Hybrids w/ICE powered by oil/gas, including plug-ins, mid-term +10-15, hydrogen begins to become the fuel and fuel cells enter the market, beyond that fuel cells.

Regarding cost, whether we like it or not we're going to pay more, at minimum paying Camry prices for a Corolla (or maybe Yaris) sized vehicle. I saw this quote at AutoExtremist in a post regarding the future of motorsports and it is pertinent to this conversation, "I can tell you right now that decisions are being made in Detroit and at other automakers around the world that will drastically affect what we'll be driving starting as soon as three years from right now. And some of those plans are going to be a real shock for people who have fairly entrenched notions as to what we should be able to drive in this country."

There is another possibility, you know: Gasoline.

I think it's here to stay for a long, long time. The price of oil right now is over 40% due to speculation. There are several new sources of oil coming online soon, and several huge discoveries in the last week (including 33bbls off the coast of Brazil) which pour salt on all those who say we're almost out. Once this bubble bursts, just like the housing market did, there is a strong chance we'll see the price of oil drop into the $60-$70 range by fall or late winter.

But the article did get one thing absolutley correct: I ain't buying nothin' that ain't proven to have the full backing of both the auto and energy industry. No hybrid, no diesel (at least not in California, where it's now almost a dollar per gallon more than regular), no hydrogen and no electric without quick charging batteries and lots of quick charging stations.

There's a reason why gasoline is popular...

jim; i know your sentiment regarding hydrogen, and I wont represent myself as one who knows this as a fact but my feelings are that battery technology has a higher energy density than liquid hydrogen. it's a sexy dream, but it's our age's equivalent of the 50's notion that by 1980 they would be driving in nuclear powered cars, and by 2000, we'd be flying. seriously.

I'd like some one to show me how much stored energy there is in hydrogen compared to a typical lithium ion battery, or zinc air, or something along those lines. point being is that hydrogen fuel cell is a great tech for space. hydrogen is a readily available fuel in space. but as a driving fuel for 6 billion people? i really doubt it. it has taken us 100 years to build a gasoline economy and it will take at least that long to dismantle and replace it. providing the wells dont just dry up suddenly. but as gus has pointed out, the oil reserves are far from dry.

i'm going to have to disagree with your point about oil prices though gus. the primary effect of the high oil prices has nothing to do with fears of shortages, but the ever weakening US dollar. gas prices are soaring in the USA, but they aren't rising as quickly in canada, and in europe i suspect they have risen little to none at all. the problem is that the USA imports 85% of their oil, and your dollar is worth about 70% of what it was worth a year ago, when measured against the CAD, the EUR, anything really.

You also say that you wont buy an alternative vehicle until there's a clear contender. I dont think that we'll be straight up replacing any one type of drive. I mean, lets face it. transport trucks are going to run on diesel for 30 years. or more. trains as well. you're going to see more diversity in the market. you'll see a lot of purely electric city cars, a lot of plug in hybrids for those commuter 'burb family types, and a lot of "cheap/throw away" gasoline type cars.

because as jim has said, we're talking technology here, complexity, and a new industry. things are going to be expensive. we're just going to have to learn to deal with it. but a nice consolation is that electric cars will be FAR simpler in design. you have a battery, you have wires, a controller, and motors. an EV doesnt have brakes, doesnt have 30,000 rotating and moving parts contained in a metal casing, doesnt have any of this.. when's the last time you had to have your shocks or springs replaced? your ECU? never. common repairs on cars: brake changing, oil changing, trans fluid changing, lube points, rad leaks,... and then you have the multitude of things that can go wrong with an engine.

we may be returning to a time of more reliable cars. a time of longer lasting cars. a time when cars were an investment.

it would be nice for SAE to lay out a plan: for the next 10 years we work on hybridization, to convince people of electric vehicles. for 10 years after that we go to purely electric vehicles. for 20 years after that we phase in hydrogen (again, if some one could figure out if battery tech really requires it).... but i dont see that happening. different drives are going to make sense for different people and different applications.

I'm getting depressed.
I'm going to go outside, put the top down on my gas-guzzling Mustang with it's big honkin' V8 and go make fun of some Prius drivers.

While I still can...