U.S. Volkswagen CEO: EVs won't be viable for 35 years

 

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2009 volkswagen polo bluemotion concept car 001

2009 volkswagen polo bluemotion concept car 001

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If the futurism of the 1950s and 1960s taught us anything as a culture, it's that what seems a sure thing today may prove laughably optimistic in a few decades. Stefan Jacoby, CEO of Volkswagen Group of America, thinks a similar situation is playing out with electric cars today.

Jacoby's main problems with a near-term mainstream electric vehicle (EV) reality are practical ones: infrastructure, affordability and safety.

"What would happen if 50 million new electric customers would plug their electric cars in an electric socket?" Jacoby asked Automotive News. "There is no country on earth that is really properly prepared for electric cars."

Even if there were a system in place that could handle that much charging, he says, building safe and efficient vehicles that store that much electricity just isn't cheap. A case in point: the Chevrolet Volt, though it only runs on electricity for a maximum of 40mi (64km) its expense and complexity have already brought target prices and delayed release several times.

Swimming upstream: Stefan Jacoby has some non-standard-issue opinions on the near future of EVs

Swimming upstream: Stefan Jacoby has some non-standard-issue opinions on the near future of EVs

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Beyond the completely assembled cars, for that matter, the underlying technology - motors, especially - isn't that highly developed. Many carmakers, including BMW and Ford are working on projects like the MINI E and the Ford Focus BEV (see galleries below) to help overcome these hurdles, but Jacoby doesn't see the solutions materializing in the immediate future.

So what does Jacoby think is the interim alternative? More efficient fossil fuel engines. In fact, Jacoby thinks that pure fossil-fueled vehicles will be getting up to 70mpg efficiency by 2020. Of course, there is already strong evidence to backup his claim, in the form of the VW Polo BlueMotion concept (pictured), rated at 71mpg and unveiled at this year's Geneva Motor Show.



 
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Comments (10)
  1. Jacoby should look at his customer service first. View my Volkswagen experience at http://www.reesphotos.com/VW/
    John Rees
     
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  2. ok i realize there is still a lot of advance possible with fossil fuels but still.. 35 years? sounds like he's trying to temper optimism with pessimism.

    electric cars are coming and guess what.. they wont flood the market over night. we've already got electric city cars.. and highway rated cars are coming. they aren't ridiculously expensive.. and they will have their proponents. at first they will only make sense for some.. and then as the technology progresses, it will make sense for more people. simple as that.

    but to say 35 years.. thats just ridiculous.

    by the way.. canada is working on a system that should be implemented in another 12 months that will allow for the grid to handle the increased loading of electric vehicles. if the generation facilities are needed, those can be built in toe with the rising demand.
     
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  3. LOL this guy proves you don't have to be all that smart to get the top job, just tell the board what they want to hear.

    1) Like we're all going to wake up one morning and find 50 Million EVs on the road, that's such an idiotic statement. There weren’t any petrol stations when ICEs started mass production either.

    2) All these idiots quoting battery prices... EV sized Li-ion batts aren't even in mass production yet.

    3) "Electric motors aren't highly developed"?? LOL there's a sh*t load more electric motors in the world than there are ICEs and they've been around just as long...

    This bloke should just refuse to give interviews and save himself and VW the embarrassment.
     
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  4. tsport100: LiON cells are produced in mass quantities to very very large sizes. you can get lithium CELLS that weigh in at several hundred pounds... thats just one 4V cell. remember, GM isnt going to be making their batteries.. LG Chem is. there are plenty of companies out there producing large scale lithium cells. there definitely is a basis to build a business model around EVs.

    its true.. electric motors have been around nearly as long as ICEs, but they've been developed for specific applications, and there just arent many companies out there with motors that are suitable for commuter vehicles. not well designed for the application anyways. there is a lot of research going in at the corporate level and the university level to get some solid motor designs out there. even the motors that todays hybrids use are not designed for the full range of speeds a commuter vehicle travels, nor are they using any sort of sophisticated technologies either.

    if EVs are embraced by the public and the big auto companies, i'd say theres a solid 20 years of exponential development in motor design that will give the EV quantum leaps in performance.

    take this from some one close to that research.
     
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  5. LOL this guy proves you don't have to be all that smart to get the top job, just tell the board what they want to hear.

    There's only one thing you need to be able to do to get the top job, make money. You need a business mind, having a technical mind as well would be nice but it's not a requirement; that's what the engineers are for.
     
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  6. Fisker 100mpg...he should read about that
     
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  7. In 35 years I should hope we ave better technology then electric cars
     
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  8. Here's one man that tells it like it is: we're not running out of oil and all of this BS about viable EVs in the very near future is just that: BS.

    Technology will run its course and in 35 years we might have a sizable fleet of EVs but in the meantime we'll be relying on ye olde internal combustion engine with a sprinkling of hybrids.

    When the moment comes we'll plug in our EVs to the wall and recharge them with electricity that comes from power plants that run on electricity and not on evil oil or coal.

    (That last paragraph is a joke, a way of laughing at all those people that think that EVs will save the planet while not giving even a first thought to how the electricity to recharge them will come from).
     
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  9. Well let VW be left behind, that is exactly what happened to the industry when Honda and Toyota began promoting hybrid powertrains now they're playing catch-up and in many cases leasing the technology from Honda and Toyota.

    It's one thing to criticize and quite another to work on over-coming those obstacles.

    If it's one thing history has taught us, ingenuity will lead, especially during the periods of growth immediately out of a recession.
     
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  10. I would like to have an interview with Stefan Jacoby please.
     
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