Analysts predict a ‘reverse takeover’ for Porsche and VW

Two of Germany's most important carmakers are at odds over who will control day-to-day operations once a planned stock acquisition is completed. Volkswagen has been fearing its imminent takeover from Porsche for some time now, with even the carmaker’s usually stoic CEO, Martin Winterkorn, previously threatening to resign if Porsche interferes too much with the daily running of Germany’s largest carmaker. But while Porsche's acquisition of over 75% of VW seems inevitable, one analyst is predicting that VW will come out on top in the end and could potentially absorb Porsche in the long run.

Speaking at a recent press event in Germany, Arndt Ellinghorst predicted that even though Porsche may technically acquire VW, it will be VW that will be in charge, resulting in a "reverse takeover" of sorts. Ellinghorst, a Credit Suisse employee, is claiming that while Porsche may be the owner of VW soon enough, the sheer size and importance of VW's operations supersedes any machinations that Porsche may have once it takes over, reports Automotive News Europe.

Furthermore, Ellinghorst predicted rather unequivocally that "Porsche will be a brand in the VW Group" due to its expected reliance on VW for increasing production capacity, and research and development. If his predictions are correct, then it appears there may have been much ado about nothing from the VW camp in regards to the Porsche takeover. Nevertheless, the German state of Lower Saxony, which owns a 20% stake in Volkswagen, remains wary of Porsche's intentions for VW.

Currently, Porsche holds almost 43% of VW's voting shares, however, in reality the Stuttgart-based sports carmaker has indirect control of around 74% of the VW Group due to non-voting shares that amount to an additional 31.5%.